What is Your Cardiovascular Disease Risk Profile

Posted on December 23rd, 2023

In an effort to understand the 10-year risk for both fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events across the globe, in 2019, the World Health Organization published a region-specific predictive risk model based on almost 400,000 individuals (data from 1960–2013) aged 40–80 without a history of cardiovascular disease to ascertain how age, blood pressure, smoking, diabetes, gender, total cholesterol, and BMI impact an individual’s risk for a cardiovascular event (1). Enclosed below are the North American charts detailing that data. For reference, total cholesterol conversions are:

• <4 mmol/L = <155 mg/dL 
• 4–4.9 mmol/L = 155 mg/dL to 190 mg/dL 
• 5–5.9 mmol/L = 191 mg/dL to 228 mg/dL 
• 6–6.9 mmol/L = 229 mg/dL to 267 mg/dL 
• >=7 mmol/L = >=268 mg/dL 

There are no ethnic breakdowns given for the North American data, so the risk may vary based on ethnic origin. 

Examples from the charts include: 

Both Smoking and Diabetes Increase the Risk

• A 50-year-old female smoker without diabetes who has a systolic blood pressure of 140–159 mmHg and a total cholesterol of 230 mg/dL has an 11% increased risk for cardiovascular disease.
• A 50-year-old female non-smoker with diabetes who has a systolic blood pressure of 140–159 mmHg and a total cholesterol of 230 mg/dL has an 11% increased risk for cardiovascular disease.

Increased BMI Confers Additional Risk (unless that BMI comes mainly from muscle mass)

• A 62-year-old male non-smoker without diabetes who has a systolic blood pressure of 140–159 mmHg and a total cholesterol of 180 mg/dL has a 13% increased risk for cardiovascular disease.
• A 62-year-old male non-smoker without diabetes who has a systolic blood pressure of 140–159 mmHg and a BMI of 30 has a 17% increased risk for cardiovascular disease.

Smoking, blood pressure, cholesterol, and BMI impact cardiovascular disease risk.  If you find yourself in a greater than 10% increased risk category, come consult our in-house nutritionist to see how dietary and lifestyle changes may help curb your risk.