What is Your Cardiovascular Disease Risk Profile

What is Your Cardiovascular Disease Risk Profile

What is Your Cardiovascular Disease Risk Profile

Posted on December 23rd, 2023

In an effort to understand the 10-year risk for both fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events across the globe, in 2019, the World Health Organization published a region-specific predictive risk model based on almost 400,000 individuals (data from 1960–2013) aged 40–80 without a history of cardiovascular disease to ascertain how age, blood pressure, smoking, diabetes, gender, total cholesterol, and BMI impact an individual’s risk for a cardiovascular event (1). Enclosed below are the North American charts detailing that data. For reference, total cholesterol conversions are:

  • <4 mmol/L = <155 mg/dL 
  • 4–4.9 mmol/L = 155 mg/dL to 190 mg/dL 
  • 5–5.9 mmol/L = 191 mg/dL to 228 mg/dL 
  • 6–6.9 mmol/L = 229 mg/dL to 267 mg/dL 
  • >=7 mmol/L = >=268 mg/dL 

There are no ethnic breakdowns given for the North American data, so the risk may vary based on ethnic origin. 

Examples from the charts include: 

Both Smoking and Diabetes Increase the Risk

  • A 50-year-old female smoker without diabetes who has a systolic blood pressure of 140–159 mmHg and a total cholesterol of 230 mg/dL has an 11% increased risk for cardiovascular disease.
  • A 50-year-old female non-smoker with diabetes who has a systolic blood pressure of 140–159 mmHg and a total cholesterol of 230 mg/dL has an 11% increased risk for cardiovascular disease.

Increased BMI Confers Additional Risk (unless that BMI comes mainly from muscle mass)

  • A 62-year-old male non-smoker without diabetes who has a systolic blood pressure of 140–159 mmHg and a total cholesterol of 180 mg/dL has a 13% increased risk for cardiovascular disease.
  • A 62-year-old male non-smoker without diabetes who has a systolic blood pressure of 140–159 mmHg and a BMI of 30 has a 17% increased risk for cardiovascular disease.

Smoking, blood pressure, cholesterol, and BMI impact cardiovascular disease risk.  If you find yourself in a greater than 10% increased risk category, come consult our in-house nutritionist to see how dietary and lifestyle changes may help curb your risk. 

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